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The collapse of the AMOC would be catastrophic. How will we know when it's coming?
On a sunny evening in July, a research ship called the Sir David Attenborough was working near the Sorgenfri glacier in south-eastern Greenland when a kilometre-long wall of craggy, bulging ice collapsed into the fjord. The scientists on deck watched in stunned silence as an estimated 18 million tonnes of ice slowly flipped over, sending up vast plumes of spray. Iceberg calving on this scale was once relatively rare – but it has become commonplace in recent years as Earth warms. And that acceleration could have catastrophic impacts that extend far beyond Greenland. It is weakening a system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic that is vital to societies in Europe and around the world. If the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) were to shut down, the continent would plunge into “ice age” winters with year-round long droughts, and agriculture would become close to impossible. Yet whether the AMOC really will fail, when that might happen and how quickly – these points all remain highly uncertain. And because of that, the threat remains a distant one in policy-makers’ minds. That is why an £81 million plan is now afoot to build an early warning system that could alert humanity...