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Colombia's president-elect raises hopes for oil and gas revival, yet
The new president will take office on August 7
WHAT The pro-oil and gas Abelardo de la Espriella is president-elect
WHY A shift to the right has been sweeping Latin American politics
WHAT NEXT Hurdles remain, and de la Espriella needs the support of congress for some – but not all - of his policies
Colombia's oil and gas industry is preparing for a potentially significant policy shift after president-elect Abelardo de la Espriella's narrow election victory, with analysts, investors and industry participants expecting a friendlier stance toward hydrocarbons when he takes office on August 7.
De la Espriella defeated left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda in the June 21 runoff by a narrow 250,000 votes, ending the prospect of another administration aligned with outgoing President Gustavo Petro's green energy policies. According to analysts cited by S&P Global, the incoming government could move quickly to encourage conventional oil and gas activity, accelerate permitting and refocus state-controlled Ecopetrol on hydrocarbon development.
Several of those measures may not require legislative approval. Dorian Kantor, a political science professor at Freie Universität Berlin and director of Kantor Consulting, told S&P Global that for example the freeze on new conventional exploration contracts was implemented by the executive branch rather than through legislation.
As a result, Kantor said the new administration could restart exploration contracting through executive action. He added that de la Espriella would also have the authority to replace Ecopetrol's leadership and steer the company back toward oil and gas development, noting that the Colombian state owns roughly 88% of the producer.
Kantor also said the government could prioritize permitting and support development of planned gas import infrastructure.
Advancing existing projects
Industry participants are focused less on announcing new projects than on advancing those already in the pipeline. Andrés Felipe Calderón Sánchez, vice president for Latin America at consultancy Welligence, told the news outlet that improving coordination of environmental licensing and consultation processes will be essential, along with strengthening security conditions in producing regions.
Calderón highlighted the Sirius offshore gas project as one of the country's most important energy developments. According to him, the field contains around 6 Tcf (170 Bcm) of reserves and could reach production of approximately 470 MMcf/d (3.3 Mm³/d), making it a key contributor to restoring Colombia's domestic gas balance.
He also pointed to regasification facilities planned for Colombia's Caribbean coast and Buenaventura as projects deserving government support. In addition, Calderón said Colombia has already made progress toward evaluating unconventional resource development through the Kale and Platero research initiatives.
Natural gas has become increasingly important in Colombia's energy outlook. Observers told S&P Global that gas-fired generation remains a critical source of backup power when hydroelectric output weakens. Concerns about future weather-related supply stress, including the possibility of another El Niño event later in 2026, have reinforced the need for reliable gas supplies.
According to Mariño, cited by S&P Global, Colombia's electricity reserve margin has narrowed significantly. Historically, generation capacity exceeded demand by 10% to 20%, providing a cushion during periods of high consumption or supply disruptions. That margin has become much tighter, increasing concern about system reliability.
No gas self-sufficiency
At the same time, Colombia is no longer enjoying the gas self-sufficiency it once had. Projects such as Sirius, being developed by Ecopetrol and Petrobras, are expected to help address the shortfall, although permitting and consultation requirements have slowed progress.
Even with stronger political support, major additions to gas supply will take years to materialize. Kantor said that planned import terminals are expected to enter service through 2026, while production from Sirius is unlikely before 2029 or even 2030.
While investors have welcomed de la Espriella's election, analysts caution that translating campaign promises into policy will be difficult.
Barron's reported that Colombian financial assets rallied after de la Espriella emerged as a leading candidate. The Global X MSCI Colombia exchange-traded fund rose 15% between the first round of voting on May 31 and June 23, while yields on the country's 10-year government bonds fell by nearly two percentage points.
Market optimism reflects expectations that Colombia could return to more investment-friendly energy policies after Petro's administration halted new drilling permits. Paul Dmitriev, emerging markets portfolio manager at Global X ETFs, told Barron's that oil output, currently below 750,000 barrels per day (bpd), could potentially exceed 1 million bpd under policies that encourage investment and expand resource development.
Economic backdrop
However, de la Espriella inherits a challenging economic backdrop. Colombia faces a fiscal deficit exceeding 6% of GDP, while rising wages, elevated borrowing costs and inflation continue to pressure public finances.
Nicolas Jaquier, an emerging-market fixed-income portfolio manager at Ninety One, told Barron's that the country may require fiscal adjustments equivalent to 4%-5% of GDP. Meanwhile, Carlos de Sousa, emerging-markets debt strategist at Vontobel Asset Management, said interest payments already consume about one-fifth of government revenue.
Political realities may prove equally challenging. De la Espriella's party controls only five seats in Congress, and the president-elect will likely need support from multiple political groups to advance major reforms.
That constraint is particularly relevant for energy policy. Kantor told S&P Global that tax incentives, royalty reforms, power-market restructuring and changes to consultation rules would require congressional approval.
Some of the most significant barriers may be beyond the reach of either Congress or the presidency. Kantor said constitutional protections and court rulings limit the government's ability to alter environmental licensing requirements, prior consultation procedures and fracking regulations.
According to Kantor, consultation requirements affect hydrocarbon and renewable energy projects alike. He also said that transmission bottlenecks and financing challenges represent deeper obstacles to energy development than is often recognised.
The broader geopolitical backdrop could still work in Colombia's favour. Alexandre Marc, a senior fellow at France's Institut Montaigne, echoed numerous analysts when he told Barron's that instability in the Persian Gulf may encourage energy companies to increase investment in Latin America, which many view as a comparatively stable region for hydrocarbon development.
The election outcome also drew support from Washington. Following the result, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio congratulated de la Espriella on social media and said the United States looked forward to working with the incoming administration on economic ties, regional security and migration issues.