#HTS is an active hashtag on Bluesky. In the last 30 days, 16 people shared 71 posts with it — around 2 a day. Activity is up 50% versus the previous week, peaking on Aug 25 with 6 posts.

Posts with #HTS

@charleslister1.bsky.social

almost 2 years ago

Having worked on #Syria full-time since the crisis began nearly 14yrs ago, there really is no understating how remarkable the losses imposed on #Assad's regime have been over the past week. A large reason for this lies with #HTS — a 🧵:

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@charleslister1.bsky.social

almost 2 years ago

But just as significant as military capabilities is the groundwork #HTS has done to facilitate its advance -- particularly in years of engagement with tribes, minority notables & other social bodies that exist beyond greater #Idlib. This has been crucial.

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@charleslister1.bsky.social

almost 2 years ago

In areas of northern #Hama for example, #HTS has negotiated intensively with Ismaili notables, with #Assad regime military commanders & with Sunni tribes -- most resulting in peaceful takeovers, safe exits & some [publicly unacknowledged] regime defections.

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@charleslister1.bsky.social

almost 2 years ago

Militarily, #HTS has invested enormously since 2020 in enhancing combat capabilities, improving professionalism, tightening its structure & command/control etc. From an 'officer' class, to special forces, night-time units & an entire drone force - it's changed the game.

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@charleslister1.bsky.social

almost 2 years ago

Having spent 4+ years engaged in sensitive community engagement with groups traditionally hostile to the likes of #HTS, the group has developed a knack for 'diplomacy.' In recent days, it's put this experience to work on multiple fronts -- to significant effect.

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@charleslister1.bsky.social

almost 2 years ago

In multiple areas of #Aleppo city long held by #Assad, local community elders have recently called on #HTS to deploy forces to their areas & intervene against #SNA abuses, threats & criminal behavior -- and to get working on repairs & service distribution.

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@charleslister1.bsky.social

almost 2 years ago

#HTS has also invested heavily in its semi-technocratic "Salvation Government", which comprises 11 Ministries & many other public sector service bodies. The SSG operates closely with external aid INGOs & the #UN has a permanent office liaising with the SSG in #Idlib.

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@charleslister1.bsky.social

almost 2 years ago

Some will dismiss #HTS & the SSG's early proto-governance steps in #Aleppo as superficial, but after 14yrs of debilitating humanitarian crisis & #Assad's corruption & economic decline -- 1st impressions could count for a lot in defining what comes next.

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@charleslister1.bsky.social

almost 2 years ago

In years past, #HTS (& Nusra before it) struggled to achieve genuine trust with the rest of #Syria's armed opposition -- but that's changed in recent years. The impressively tight coordination with long-standing FSA-branded groups this past week is evidence of that.

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@charleslister1.bsky.social

almost 2 years ago

But beyond military coordination, the [so far] smooth transition from battle to consolidation to interim governance -- particularly in #Aleppo -- has seen #HTS devolve authority to more locally-rooted factions (see Jabha al-Shamiya, Zinki et. al.)

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@charleslister1.bsky.social

almost 2 years ago

Ahrar al-Sham was the 1st such group to embrace the 'green' revolutionary flag, to adopt nationalist rhetoric, and to publicly critique the influence of 'external' (jihadist) actors. Criticism from Nusra, then #JFS-#HTS was swift -- but it's the model that #HTS has embraced.

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@charleslister1.bsky.social

almost 2 years ago

In many ways & with a heavy dose of irony, #HTS today is the realization of a vision first put forward by Ahrar al-Sham, whose 1st-generation leaders sought to pursue an evolution from Salafi-jihad to 'revolutionary nationalism." Ahrar's decline was #HTS's doing.