Recent posts by Online Political Thinkers on Bluesky

Thinking locally here in California: so we’re going to push development into the wildland-urban interface where 1) wildfires are now regularly burning into urban grids and 2) insurers no longer want to provide coverage? How does this solve bupkis?

yeah I know that this is elitist or whatever but I don't care, it's so fucking embarrassing to have this dumb shithead as president while smart and accomplished people are in charge on either side.

Trump's numbers on immigration have been tanking across all major polls including but not limited to recent polls from NYT, WaPo, Fox (!), Reuters etc. Yet here @politico.com's Playbook editor gaslighting its readers that Americas are receiving his "hardline approach on immigration" - "positively."

Appreciate the chance to talk with lots of Northwestern students and community members last night. My thank to everyone who came out, and to Prof. Gilbert for framing and guiding the entire conversation.

I think it's been clear for some time that Rs do not know or care what people want. D moderates know this; they just want centrist policies for their own sake, and so cynically pretend that Rs are geniuses to buttress their own preferences.

Wrote this in January and could easily update it with umpteen more examples since then. They are waging a censorship campaign, full stop.

In related news, the chance of a recession this year (65%) is approaching its previous April 6 peak (66%) polymarket.com/event/us-rec...

this is like buying turkey futures on thanksgiving

A cause for hope for America is that Canadians operate in a similar information environment to us and even their garbage influencers couldn't keep the TRUMP IS FUCKING EVERYTHING UP message from getting to voters.

“Pro-natalism” is always about the men who fucked things up seeking a way to blame women. www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

This is probably the best TLDR of what my new book is about: how to lead effectively in this moment while also not being an asshole - and why it’s so so so worth it.

May or may not be having a religious experience

Trump reportedly called up Jeff Bezos this morning pissed off about the news Amazon would be adding a line for customers with tariffs charges. “Why should a multi-billion-dollar company pass off costs to consumers?” said a White House official.

you can really see the difference if you watch police training videos for traffic stops in the UK vs US

man, the Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology meetings are getting rough

If you find yourself annoyed by the self-importance of Founder-Americans, a fun thought experiment is to try to name five 20th century investors. For alleged engines of human progress, their names seem to be lost to history about as soon as they get covered in dirt.

If you find yourself annoyed by the self-importance of Founder-Americans is to try to name five 20th century investors. For alleged engines of human progress, their names seem to be lost to history about as soon as they get covered in dirt.

Despite pulling agents off of drug interdiction and human trafficking and whatever else, they’re resource-constrained. It’s been a nightmare, but it’s gonna get a lot worse when the GOP rams its fascist budget bill through and ICE (and private prison companies) gets a pile of new cash.

More than one labor union shares a lobbying firm with Musk. Would love to see our movement ditch these firms publicly: @cfaunited.bsky.social @unacuhcp.bsky.social @aftmaryland.bsky.social @atucomms.bsky.social @cowinsunion.bsky.social

26th century guide: "we call this a 'millionaire's hole'"

This week’s episode is United States v. Zubaydah, where the Court held that the government can protect state secrets, even when the “secrets” are public knowledge.

New: It's an article of faith among Democrats that they need to organize around some consensus agenda, to show Americans they're "for" something, not just against Trump. I think this is mistaken, and that heavy-handed rebranding exercises are both overrated and a recipe for disarray.

The thing about Mike Johnson (and many other GOP MoCs) is that they are fully marinated in conspiracy theories about Democrats being communist/satanic/evil/un-American/anti-Christian/you name it, and while they don't live in as much of a bubble as their dear leader, they do live in a bubble

i find it interesting because both consumer and corporate sentiment is in the toilet, but the true reckoning in stats hasn't shown up yet

The unwillingness to learn from experience is getting to be too much. www.freep.com/story/news/p...

"democracy for busy people"

Totally agree, and but it needs some thought - step one is we need to make full readings of the Declaration central to the ceremonies.

In a recent development, I'm officially a kombucha guy now. I shudder to think of what else I'm missing out on just because hippies like it. Like, is patchouli good?

Important point. "Abolish ICE" doesn't mean 'eliminate immigration controls'; it means 'ICE is institutionally rotten, its incentives are perverse — and so we have to tear it down and build an agency that's less like a Chekhov's gun in a play about a would-be tyrant.'

is the Alberta secession stuff hot air bullshit or not? the constitutional framework doe sexist and the idea appears to have some purchase among the more groypher-ish Canadian right

"What makes you so much more worthier of your peace? What makes you so much more worthier of protecting your children? What makes you so much more worthy of your citizenship? What makes you more worthy of safety?" kfor.com/news/local/w...

i keep thinking it is friday and being surprised each time that it isn't

There's a lot in this piece about the annual joint Israel-Palestinian memorial day ceremony, which is this week marking its 20th year, and is still growing after October 7 and amidst the current war.

"South Korean business circles asked Chung to facilitate Trump Jr.'s visit as a way to establish contact with the Trump administration..."

At this point, don’t the major outlets need to boycott the briefings? Nothing useful is said, no answers given. But their presence legitimates the events, and thus gives credibility to the fringe extremists present (and thus also degrades their own social capital). Let it just be a freak show.

"I'm sure promoting gimmicky come-on pricing for an Elon Musk company product will only result in good things for our audience, I am a very serious journalist."

Just fold it back into INS. Yeah, you need to deport people who commit murders or whatever, but enforcement should just be one part of a broader immigration management portfolio. In hindsight, it should never have been its own agency.

we ask our police to do different things than other people ask their police to do. you know what don't do dick for investigations? surplus Army vehicles

Interesting: the Department of Justice just filed a sealed motion in the Abrego Garcia case. This comes after both sides agreed to a 7-day pause in discovery after a previous round of sealed motions. No clue what's going on. We'll have to wait and see.

this is genuinely remarkable - www.scotland.police.uk/what-s-happe...

I understand Democrats have a problem with using high-fallutin’ language that repels the rubes.

“you can produce a dataset that tells you all sorts of nonsense in a quantitative manner. That doesn't make it true”🔥🔥🔥

One of the joys of working for a subsidiary is the mothership telling you that a particular training is "strongly encouraged" to attend, stating definitively that the calendar invite was already sent to you, then being non-responsive when you point out you have zero calendar invites to the event

buying my beautiful wife a present recommended by tiktok

Wouldn't Amazon and other retailers listing price increases caused by tariffs show American consumers that Trump made goods from China more expensive thereby encouraging people to buy US-made alternatives instead? Isn't that supposed to be the plan? The one they're proud of they say will work soon?

IOKIYAR: if you liked it before, you'll love it as federal policy!

This looks like an SNL skit.

just experienced a squirrel falling off a branch onto my shoulder and then running down my arm, and i'm genuinely not sure which of us were more startled by it.

There's a new conservative study purporting to prove that abortion medication is dangerous. Let's talk about why it's horseshit. To start, it's published by a conservative think tank, not peer-reviewed, and contradicts decades of credible research showing mifepristone is safe

Who are these chucklefucks in the White House Press Room laughing along with this propaganda? It's remarkable how quickly Trump has turned that space into 100% state media.

No charges. Dude ran a stop sign. www.rawstory.com/texas-cop-sh...

also worth emphasizing that U.S. policing is *unusually bad and incompetent.*. British police have fucked up plenty of stuff - see the Spy Cops scandal - but not on the routine and enormous scale that U.S. cops do.

PP WATCH torontosun.com/opinion/colu...

without saying "engagement bait," what is your favorite form of content?

Every Democrat needs to get on board

The always fantastic @joshuapvaughn.bsky.social has a new podcast, documenting the barbaric inhumanity of our jails, one real, actual human victim at a time. Grim, to be sure, but we cannot look away. One of the few “true crime” podcasts I can get behind—where, TBC, the crime is how we treat ppl.

Sigh, Bezos is backing down. These CEOs just can't let go of their faith in fascism. x.com/JStein_WaPo/...

For context, the DOJ’s entire budget is about half that (roughly ~$50B in discretionary and mandatory spending).

Reminder that Democrats have bad numbers in polls in part because their base wants them to do more in resisting Trump CNN/SSRS s3.documentcloud.org/documents/25... Democratic leader approval among Ds: 42% approve, 57% disapprove Schumer favorables among Ds: 33% favorable, 29% unfavorable

"The Next Episode" "Nuthin but a G Thang" "Let me Ride"

It’s exactly what they’re doing now.

once again reminding people that "swing voters" are mostly not centrists they are "get mad at the president because i disapprove of the supermarket rearranging the aisles again" voters

NEW: ICE clarifies that the 151,000 arrest figure put out by the White House yesterday is NOT internal arrests, as Leavitt and DHS have implied. That figure likely includes all CBP “encounters,” including people with visa issues at airports. ICE’s arrest number is 66,500; high, but not historic.

When my old stick of deodorant runs out

important to remember that they have no value they will not betray

The video is equally horrifying. kfor.com/video/federa...

I recall a case in Chicago where a man was acquitted but sent back to Cook County while his paperwork got processed. The very next day he was brutally assaulted by another detainee. These delays have very real human costs, and those responsible should be … held responsible.

imo he got a lot achieved but I do think he could have done a lot more with his CASA

“What makes you so much worthier of your peace… of protecting your children… of your citizenship… of safety?” This is it. This is precisely it.

They’re rightly afraid of becoming targets of MAGA lunatics so their name’s being withheld and there probably won’t be a GoFundMe to help them out.

need somebody to invent quantum article ledes that allow you to simultaneously get across five different points at once

NEW: ICE clarifies that the 151,000 arrest figure put out by the White House yesterday is NOT internal arrests, as Leavitt and DHS have implied. That figure likely includes all CBP “encounters,” including people with visa issues at airports. ICE’s arrest number is 65,000; high, but not historic.

Animal rights is a diagonal issue - strongly held belief that cuts across ideologies. We should talk about this.

walking back my "draft Pulcinella" campaign after a look at these sobering numbers

I'd just like to note that even during this "pause," the U.S.'s average effective tariff rate is 28%, up from 3.3% last year and the highest rate since 1901. (With things constantly changing, this is a good resource: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/sta...)

In honor of Trump's first hundred days: danieldrezner.substack.com/p/how-not-to...

ask and ye shall receive, DOJ

Last night there was a dog in our neighborhood yelling "woof" with perfect pronunciation. Like, he should be an anchor on the dog news.

My book manuscript is due in a few weeks. So naturally, every imaginable story on my beat is breaking simultaneously at this exact moment.

ChatGPT, make a photo of me in the office

Wowwwww. Paul Clement to defend the Wisconsin judge.

“Transferring immigrants to remote immigrant jails is also a familiar tactic intended to impair access to legal counsel while putting cases before more hostile courts. Trump’s deportation machinery is building on what prior [admins], including those of Obama and Biden, had already put in place.”

Cult of personality watch

Conservative superlawyer Paul Clement joins yet another case challenging the Trump administration. This time he's representing Judge Hannah Dugan, who was was arrested after the FBI said she tried to shield an illegal immigrant from arrest. www.jsonline.com/story/news/l...

So far this morning... 1. Punchbowl reports that Amazon is going to show the cost of tariffs on pricing 2. Trump calls Bezos to complain 3. Amazon issues a statement sort of denying it 4. Amazon issues a "revised" statement denying it a wee bit more. www.cnn.com/politics/liv...

But he also said he really liked the idea of "deporting" citizens on purpose.

I disagree that responding to false claims like "there are no American goods in foreign countries," with something like "what, yes there are, literally trillions worth, do you think no one else uses iPhones?" is rudely uncalled for, while nodding "yes, that *is* bad," is the respectful thing to do.

this just makes you want to throw yourself off a cliff. even if you thought trump was a new man—the presidency isn't a bad boy narrative ark! for the love of god.

12 People Who Watched "Young Sheldon" Religiously But Needed To Have the Plots Explained To Them During Commercial Breaks Share Their Thoughts on Trump's First 100 Days

so another thing I really appreciate in THE SHIELD - which I should rewatch! - is its unwillingness to let its characters be redeemed.

Chilling story underscoring why it's so important for lawyers in the time we live in to think about the the companies and organizations they work for.

DOGE destroyed valuable programs and called it "savings." Plus did stupid, avoidable things that ultimately cost a lot money, such as haphazardly firing a bunch of people with important jobs and then scrambling to rehire them. Which wiped out most of the "savings" that weren't actually savings.

Team Trump is furious someone is housing Anne Frank

the problem here is that Harris was an attractive, young candidate who spoke well and offered a pretty clear brief for multi racial democracy vs. fascism. like, she's the candidate these people claim they want, it seems like. 1

"He said 'I'm gonna be like you, Dad. You know, I'm gonna be like you.'" 💀😭🥰

Brought a healthy lunch, but then discovered a big bag of honey mustard pretzels I had left in my backpack.....

Shocked to find out that a far right propaganda network maybe rigging its focus group of voters to make its dear leader look good.

He could just not implement giant import taxes. Has he ever considered that?

literally only Teslas meet this standard www.kbb.com/car-news/stu...

But Trump said “tariffs” was the most beautiful word in the English language! Why doesn’t he want to see it in more places?